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June 2015 Dairy Commodities Update

June 30, 2015

The “plenty of milk” narrative continues. Earlier in the year, forecasts showed an abundant milk supply. It also showed waning demand. Taken together, those trends conspire to tell a story of ample milk on the global market.

While New Zealand production period is over, its overall results were a sound 2.2% growth. The EU is finally operating quota free, allowing dairy farmers to produce what they want. Early in the year, while the quotas were in effect, dairy production in Europe was restricted to avoid quota overruns and the imposition of fines. Post-quota production indications, however, show building supplies. Certainly, herd numbers are building, with the majority of dairy countries adding head. US milk product expanded a healthy 1.7% in the first quarter of 2015. There was some pull back in March but output remained robust as we passed through the traditional peak production period of spring flush.

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